Response to Subramanian and Wei
نویسنده
چکیده
What’s the Buzz? In the summer of 2002, I started to circulate research that argued it is not clear that the World Trade Organization (“WTO”) or its pre-1995 predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (“GATT”) have actually increased trade. My argument was empirical and used two sorts of evidence. First, in my 2004 paper, I used bilateral and multilateral data sets to show that trade flows seemed little different between members and non-members. More precisely, the differences seemed economically small and were often statistically insignificant. Second, in my 2002 paper, I compared a large number of trade policy measures across members and non-members, and again found few significant differences. Subramanian and Wei (2003) (hereafter “SW”) paper argue that my (2004) paper “is incomplete and can be misread seriously.” They provide two grounds. First, the majority of my econometric work on bilateral trade flows does not include country-specific fixed effects. Second, I did not take account of three different “asymmetries” in the data: a) the difference between industrialized and developing countries; b) the difference between countries that joined the GATT before the Uruguay round, and those that joined the WTO afterwards; and c) differences across sectors associated with the degree of liberalization achieved under the GATT/WTO. Below, I respond to these criticisms.
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